Following the 2024 US presidential elections, the price of the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 2.4% in the past 24 hours, surpassing the $70,000 mark in early trading today. Analysts believe the surge was fueled by the growing momentum of crypto-friendly Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
Other crypto-related stocks also rose in value, especially Ethereum’s Ether (ETH), which continues to underperform Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio was 0.03526, falling to its lowest level since April 2021.
In traditional markets, the Nasdaq rose more than 1% and the S&P 500 added 0.8%. Gold and oil rose modestly, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 4.36%.
According to some traders, the crypto market reaction appears to be influenced by Donald Trump’s narrowing lead in election polls, which are traditionally seen as favorable for cryptocurrencies.
Polls continue to point to a close race for the U.S. presidency and control of both houses of Congress. Polymarket betting markets have a significantly higher chance of Donald Trump winning, currently at 62% compared to Kamala Harris’ 38% chance of winning. The odds of Republicans winning the presidency, House of Representatives and Senate are 39% and Democrats 16%.
Similarly, Dogecoin (DOGE) has risen in value by over 10% in the past 24 hours. The meme coin has risen by 50% in the past 30 days after receiving new backing from tech entrepreneur Elon Musk as part of the Republican campaign. Musk proposed the creation of a Department of Government Efficiency, which he calls “D.O.G.E.”, an abbreviation.
This sentiment is in direct contradiction to the market reaction yesterday. Bitcoin fell almost 3%, while all major tokens recorded losses between 1% and 5%. Bitcoin fell after defunct exchange Mt. Gox transferred $2.2 billion worth of tokens from vaults to new wallets. These have historically led to price declines ahead of creditor repayments, and traders expect short-term selling pressure as assets continue to move to exchanges. The U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) also saw net outflows of $541 million on Monday, the highest since May.
Traders believed the reaction came amid a shift in election polls that brings coin toss odds closer in some markets. “The market is falling because traders are no longer convinced that Trump will win comfortably on Tuesday. This doesn’t bode well for cryptocurrencies, as Trump is seen as a pro-crypto candidate,” Jeff May, chief operating officer at crypto exchange BTSE, told CoinDesk.
At that point, former President Trump’s chances had fallen to under 53% (Harris’ chances had risen to over 47%). “It’s incredible how strongly Bitcoin’s price movements correlate with President Trump’s election chances,” analyst Miles Deutscher wrote in a commentary on the so-called “yen risk.”
